The headlines continue to focus on the late September meeting of OPEC and non OPEC producers. Oil prices extended their rally following Russia’s oil minister’s comments that they are also meeting with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in October. Saudi Arabia has also shown their consent on stabilizing crude oil prices and taking all possible actions.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are the globes two largest crude oil producers and their move towards stabilizing crude oil prices could have a significant impact on other crude oil producers and crude oil prices.However, it appears that production talks may continue into October, as Russian oil minister is likely to meet with OPEC producers, particularly with Saudi’s minister in October after the informal meeting among OPEC producers in late September.
Traders are closely monitoring prices as the magical $50 level will send US shale producers back into full operational mode.
Comments from the Saudi’s indicate the country may be increasing its August crude output to a new all-time high as it could give it more leverage to influence the September informal talks on a possible production freeze, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing industry sources.
Brent Oil Breaks The Magic $50 Price
But the cases of Nigeria and Libya could complicate the proposed OPEC deal as the two countries cannot cut output further, following the recent production cuts suffered by both countries on account of internal crisis.
For those who are still pessimistic over copper market fundamentals, latest data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS).WBMS data showed global copper supply deficit expanded in H1 2016 and consumption grew faster than supply.
According to the WBMS, global copper market was in a supply deficit of 197,000 tons in H1 2016.
Global refined copper output rose 3.4% year-on-year to 11.60 million tonnes in H1 2016, driven by 250,000 ton increase in China and 28,000 ton growth in Chile.Meanwhile, global apparent copper consumption also rose, up 6.69% from a year ago to 11,800,211 tonnes in H1 2016, with growth in China, the EU and India, versus declines in Japan, South Korea and the US.
Apparent copper consumption in China rose 9.8% from a year ago to 5,852,015 tons in H1 2016, claiming 49.59% of global demand, while that in the EU increased 4.4% to 1,773,302 tons.The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) has published the Metals Balances Report for the first six months of the current year. The global primary Aluminum and Lead markets recorded marginal deficit during Jan-June ’16. Also, Copper market too reported small deficit during the initial half of the year.
The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded a marginal deficit during the initial six months of the year. As per the report, the market reported a deficit of 479,000 tons when matched with the deficit of 331,000 reported for the entire year 2015.
The global lead market has recorded a deficit of 46,000 tonnes during January to June this year. It must be noted that the worldwide lead market had reported a deficit of 4.0 kt for the entire year 2015.The global refined lead output during Jan-June ’16 increased marginally by 1.9% over the previous year to 5,145.7 kt. This is inclusive of production from primary and secondary sources.The global lead demand during Jan-June ‘16 has surged higher by 136kt. The Chinese apparent consumption in January to June 2016 totaled 1,959 kt, which is marginally lower by 9 kt when matched with the corresponding six-month period in 2015. The Chinese apparent consumption represented nearly 37% of the global total. The apparent demand dropped by 15 kt in the US.
LME lead is expected to challenge the year’s best level of $ 1,916 per tonne in the coming week.
LME zinc is expected to hover at highs between $2,250-2,320 per tonne next week, and SHFE October zinc will trade between 17,300-17,900 yuan per tonne, SMM foresees.
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