Narnolia Securities places its Nifty target for March 2019 at 11,524. Although in the short term, the 50-stock index could trade in the range of 10,000-10,600.
Both the sharp fall in Feb-March and then this recent pullback is closely related to how bond yield has moved. When 10-year bond yield rose above 7.4 percent and started inching towards traditional psychological level of high interest rate of 10 percent, the sell off began in Indian equities. Surely, the fall was aggravated due to disappointment from budget, rising rates in US (inching closer to its psychological level of 3 percent) and trade war lately. But Nifty is showing strength again as rates have cooled off. 10-Year bond yield has come down to 7.2 percent after making high of 7.78 percent on 6th March. Interestingly while on margin, macro on external front has deteriorated recently but Rupee has behaved strong. 2017 was an exceptional year in terms of rising equity market across globe in a multiyear low volatility environment. In 2018 this has changed and markets will be showing less of trending regime and more of cyclical swings. For Nifty, our March 2019 target is levels of 11,524. Though, in very short term we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 10,000-10,600.
Market is surely not trading at a very low valuation that one can disregard factors like political uncertainty. Also we have couple of key state election this year and outcome of these elections would surely influence market as these will be an indication of all important general election next year. But, corporate earning over next 3-5 years is expected to be strong, so negative surprises if any should be used by Investors to accumulate equities.
Nifty could reclaim 11K in a quarter or two; 5 sectors in focus: Envision Cap
it makes sense to be in this sector as the outlook for this remains positive from 2-3 year perspective. ôNew areas have started giving larger revenue share for these companiesů the guidance is going to be in high single digits. There could be double digit growth in these companies in a few quarters.
March quarter earnings are very important for the market, but the key thing to watch out for is the guidance from corporate India. Additionally, if the monsoons are normal and commodities see less upside, then the 50-share index get soon go up to 11K mark.
Some of the stocks that our research team has recently recommended are: ICICI Prudential Life, Quess Corp, M&M, Capacite Infraprojects and Equitas Holdings.
Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
Our Some Best Services Read it Here…