We are looking for a final top to the massive bond bull market that began in 1981. While it is possible the final top is in place, I am leaning to one final marginal high before everything goes belly up.
In the back of my mind is one of my weaknesses in thinking things will play out quicker than they actually do. I am continually being made to be patient and I suspect this time will be another of those times.
This will likely be determined by the US Fed meeting later in September. Increasing rates at that meeting would probably mean the top is in place but I now favour rates to remain unchanged with the rate increase to occur in December this year. This speculation of the fundamentals is based purely on how I view the technicals.
I favour price to make one final marginal high, or possibly a lower high, in the final quarter and then a rate increase in December confirms it.
Anyway, we can see a “three strikes and you’re out” top formation in play. This is just the expression I give to the pattern of three peaks or troughs. I’ve seen some technicians try to claim this as their own. Bollocks. I first learnt it through Gann teachings but it may have been discovered before then.
A lower high is also a possibility but I personally lean to one more marginal high.
The Bollinger Bands show price is back down around the middle band and I favour support to come in here and send price back up for one last lash at the upper band.
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